报告题目1：Modelling media impact during an infectious disease outbreak

报告人:肖燕妮  教授

报告时间：2017年4月15日（周六）9:00—10:00
报告地点：数学与统计学院学术报告厅

报告摘要: There is evidence showing that media/psychological impact does greatly affect the spread of infectious diseases. A number of mathematical models has been formulated to examine effect of mass media on disease outbreak. In this talk I shall present our recent work on modeling media impact by using Filippov system. Our proposed models extend the classic models with media coverage by including a piecewise smooth incidence rate to represent that the reduction factor because of media coverage depends on both the number of cases and the rate of changes in case number. On the basis of properties of Lambert W function the implicitly defined model has been converted into a Filippov system, and the dynamic behavior is theoretically examined. The finding suggests that media impacts are not always effective in lowering the disease transmission during the entire outbreak, but switch on and off in a highly nonlinear fashion with the greatest effect during the early stage of the outbreak.  By fitting the proposed models to the surveillant data on 2009 A/H1N1 influenza outbreak in the Shaanxi province of China we suggest the most effective interventions to control the disease spread.

报告题目2：Modelling impact of interventions on control of vector-borne disease

报告人:   肖燕妮  教授

报告时间：2017年4月15日（周六）10:00—11:00
报告地点：数学与统计学院学术报告厅

报告摘要: Cases of co-infection by dengue and Zika have been reported, the implication of this co-infection for an integrated intervention program for controlling both dengue and Zika must be addressed urgently. Major challenges remain when attempting to quantify and evaluate the impacts of the integrated program of control strategies on dengue infection or Zika infection. In this talk, we initially present an impulsive mathematical model to closely mimic the integrated program of impulsive vector control (every Friday afternoon since the initiation of the program) and continuous patient treatment and isolation implemented in the Guangdong Province of China during its 2014 dengue outbreak. We fitted the data of accumulated infections and used the parameterized model to carry out a retrospective analysis to estimate the basic reproduction number 1.7425 (95% CI 1.4443--2.0408), the control reproduction number 0.1709. This suggests that integrated intervention is highly effective in controlling the dengue outbreak. We also simulated outbreak outcomes under different variations of the implemented interventions. The findings indicate that quick and persistent impulsive implementation of vector control result in an effective reduction in the control reproduction number and hence lead to significant decline of new infections. Secondly, we investigate the implication of vaccination against dengue for Zika outbreak. Our analysis determines specific conditions under which vaccination against dengue can significantly increase the Zika outbreak peak, and speed up the Zika outbreak peak timing. Our results call for further study about the co-infection to direct an integrated control to balance the benefits for dengue control and the damages of Zika outbreak.

报告人简介: 肖燕妮，西安交通大学数学与统计学院教授、博士生导师。研究领域是生物数学，特别是传染病动力学。1998年在陕西师范大学数学系获理学硕士学位，2001年在中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院数学所获理学博士学位，同年毕业时获“中国科学院院长优秀奖”。2001 年5 月至 2003 年1 月在中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院系统所控制室作博士后，在此期间曾访问英国 Rothamsted Research研究所，进行植物传染病方面的专题合作研究。 2003 年晋升为副教授。2003 年 1 月至 2006 年 5 月在英国 Liverpool 大学做博士后研究。2006 年 6 月被聘为西安交通大学理学院研究员。2008年起担任生物数学委员会常务理事，2008入选教育部“新世纪优秀人才支持计划”。主要从事确定性和随机的非线性动力系统及生态、流行病动力系统的研究，空间网络模型及脉冲控制方面的研究。研究工作集中在连续、离散和脉冲动力系统的基本理论研究，及其在流行病动力学、种群动力学、病毒动力学和药物动力学的应用研究。研究对象直接与传染病防治、生态平衡、生物资源管理等密切相关，是社会关注的热点，有很强的应用前景。研究时滞、空间异质性和随机因素对国家重点关注的传染病的爆发、流行的影响以及微分动力系统的脉冲可控稳定性。动力系统的脉冲可控稳定性理论及其在生物资源管理、流行病控制等方面的应用研究。研究传染病传播规律的数学建模、数据处理、分析计算、流行趋势预测等方面的理论与方法。

主持国家自然科学基金4项，其中重点项目1项，参与国际合作项目（NSFC-NIH）1项。参与“十一五”、“十二五”国家重大科技专项，并负责艾滋病项目数学模型子课题的研究。在应用数学、生物数学的国际、国内高水平杂志等上发表论文90余篇。2013年在国际医学领域、药学权威综述刊物《Advanced Drug Delivery Reviews》合作发表综述文章，该期刊最新公布的影响因子是15.60。2015年在Nature 子刊《Scientific Reports》发表关于媒体对传染病传播影响的文章，文章发表后得到中外媒体的广泛关注，加拿大最具影响力的报纸《环球邮报》（The Globe and Mail，2015年1月19日）、光明网头版(2015年1月16日)、果壳网科学人以及中国日报（2015年1月16日）等对研究成果进行了报道。       欢迎广大师生参加！               

                                              数学与统计学院

                                                                 2017年4月5日